Adobe updates its holiday shopping predictions

The latest from the Adobe Digital Economy Index shows that consumers have spent over $70 billion in online shopping this season (beginning November 1), almost a 20% increase YoY. This reflects a trend in 2021 towards early holiday shopping.

Based on a unique data pool, including over one trillion visits to digital retail sites, Adobe is projecting some $207 billion in digital retail sales for the entire season (closing December 31), a 10% YoY increase and a new record. Cyber Monday is predicted to be the biggest shopping day, also record-breaking, and with the stores closed for Thanksgiving, Adobe expects online spending between $5.1 and $5.9 billion on the day itself.

Spending on toys is up an incredible 256%, possibly driven by supply chain worries — and indeed out of stock messages this November have grown 261% YoY.

Why we care. That digital shopping habit, accelerated by lockdown, is here to stay; and if it was a general indicator of economic health things would look rosy indeed. With continued scope for consumers to move their shopping habits online, records will continue to be broken. The only concern must be that a lot of purchases won’t show up until after the holidays are over.

Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights, said: “It’s clear that [consumers are] determined to forge ahead by spending earlier to get the items they want at the best possible prices. However, they will also compromise on buying gifts that weren’t necessarily first on their lists as popular items like electronics continue to be out of stock.”

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